Projected Air Temperature Dynamics in a Tropical Dry Forest Under NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Scenarios

Tropical dry forests (TDFs) are sensitive ecosystems projected to experience significant warming due to global climate change, potentially disrupting their ecological functions. Accurate and low-uncertainty climate projections are critical for understanding monthly temperature trends in these regions. This study employs NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyze monthly mean air temperature changes in a TDF across historical (1960–2014), near-term (2015–2040), mid-term (2040–2060), and far-term (2080–2100) periods. We conduct this analysis under three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We identified statistically significant positive temperature trends for historical and projected periods (α = 0.05, p < 0.001). SSP5-8.5 exhibited the steepest increase, with a slope of 85.8 × 10⁻⁶ °C/month across all terms (2015–2100). Monthly results show projected air temperature increases of 1.5 ̊ ± 0.9 °C (5.1%), 2.7 ̊± 0.7 °C (9.0%), and 3.2 ̊ ± 0.7 °C (10.6%) under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively, remaining below the global warming rates reported in the IPCC AR6 by end of 21st century. Seasonally, warming is projected to be more pronounced during the wet season than the dry season, with differences of 9.09%, 8.67%, and 12.22% for SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Under the SSP5-8.5 “worst-case” scenario, warming rates are projected to reach critical thresholds for TDF productivity, posing risks to ecosystem stability; therefore, climate adaptation strategies are required to protect TDFs from escalating warming trends.